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International Science Roundtable for the Media
During Prepcom4 of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), Bali, Indonesia |
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Summary
Megacities in Asia: an (Un)Sustainable Development? Predictions for 2015 show a total of 358 cities worldwide with a population of over a million people, of which 153 are expected to be in Asia (Habitat, 2001) By 2015, 15 megacities are projected for the Asian continent. Their high population density and enormous material and energy demand result in GHG emissions that threaten local and global sustainability. "Industries, urban transportation, businesses and households all use enormous amounts of energy in the form of coal, oil, electricity and gas. These are the main sources of GHG and local pollutants", says Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal of IGES (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan) speaking today at an International Science Roundtable for the Media organised by the major global environmental change programmes during PrepCom4 of the WSSD in Bali, Indonesia. In Tokyo, CO2 emissions from energy use have increased more than two-fold from 1970-1998, with an average growth rate of 2.5 % per year. Most emissions result from commercial activities and transportation, with oil and electricity being the main sources. Despite a slowing of economic growth in the1990s, emissions from households, urban transportation and commercial activities continue to increase. Only CO2 emissions from the industrial sector decreased gradually, from 34% in 1970 to 10% in 1998. Households are still the main source of emissions in Seoul. Oil contributes to nearly 60% of the total CO2 emissions due to its dominant use in buildings and urban transportation and also because most of the big buildings in Seoul use oil-based central heating systems. In Beijing, industrial activities cause 60% of the total CO2 emissions, followed by households (14%), while urban transportation contributes only about 6%. Shanghai’s situation is similar, with industry contributing over 70% and urban transportation about 9%. However, in both cities massive investments in transportation systems are planned for the coming years, and urban planners are already projecting a 3-4-fold increase in cars and trucks by 2020. The study, undertaken in co-operation with the IHDP (International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change) Industrial Transformation Project, will also project the future situation in these cities under different scenarios and propose countermeasures to policy-makers. In addition, scientists investigate the "environmental load" of megacities, caused by indirect emissions through manufacturing and resource extraction outside the cities. "Our analysis suggests that the indirect energy consumption of Tokyo is 3.5 times higher than its direct one. For Shanghai, the number is double", says Dr. Dhakal. "The major issue is how to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions while maintaining the urban population’s living standards", he adds. "Changes in unsustainable consumption-oriented lifestyles will be key to this issue". Such changes, however, cannot be achieved in the short-term and their success depends on local policies and public campaigns. In China, for example, people’s income has constantly increased during the past decade but concerns for a sustainable environment are low. ‘Green’ products are not popular in China. Countermeasures In the first phase of the project, researchers identified the transportation and building sectors as those with a high potential for effective countermeasures. The building sector in particular provides enormous opportunities. Improvements in building insulation and fuel switching for central heating systems can save energy and thus reduce emissions. Government policies, e.g. building codes, laws, and standards for promoting appliance efficiency can be introduced. "Simple measures such as changing from incandescent lamps to fluorescent lamps can save huge amounts of electricity" Dhakal points out. Using renewable energy, e.g. solar energy for hot water production, appropriate temperature settings for heating and air conditioning and avoiding waste of energy are further energy savers. In the transportation sector a switch to alternative fuels (e.g. compressed natural gas - CNG), promoting electric and hybrid vehicles, increasing the fuel efficiency of cars and better fuel quality are potential and promising countermeasures, together with increasing average vehicle speed through traffic management and appropriate land-use planning. Such car-limiting policies have shown some success in Shanghai, as the city has adopted the Singapore style of auctioning registration permits for new vehicles. But greater efforts will be needed in both Beijing and Shanghai to control vehicles in use and reduce trip length and frequency. Efficient public mass transportation systems are inevitable for these cities. Car-limiting policies are difficult to implement in Tokyo and Seoul and the scope for further drastic improvements in fuel efficiency, quality and end-of-pipe technology is limited. Hence the most promising way forward will be to implement policies that motivate people to change their lifestyle, such as driving behaviour, and to set up a system of parking fees. "Improvements in technology, urban management and lifestyle changes are key to a sustainable development in megacities. They require policy measures and integrated planning based on a comprehensive understanding of all associated issues. Scientific research can serve the policy-making community and will continue to be an indispensable component of sustainable development", concludes Dr. Dhakal. For further information please contact: Background:
Joint Event: IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS, START
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